Florida, because the ageists put it, is “the place America goes to die”. Additionally it is the place the Republican get together goes that it would dwell once more. From Palm Seashore, Donald Trump and his courtroom contemplate one other run on the White Home in 2024. Miami confounds the rule that massive worldwide cities are axiomatically leftwing. As for Orlando, Republicans from the US Home of Representatives used it this week as a safe space from which to plot a midterm comeback.

Kind favours them: the earlier two Democratic presidents misplaced Congress on the first time of asking. So does the demographic churn that was picked up by the 2020 census. Florida and the but extra conservative Texas are to realize seats at the price of New York and California. After a extra respectable than anticipated defeat final November, Home Republicans want no act of God to avenge it subsequent yr.

A celebration of such constant success, or at any fee competitiveness, has no incentive to vary. Positive sufficient, it doesn’t.

This week marks the primary 100 days of Joe Biden’s presidency. However the first 100 of the Republican opposition had been all the time going to say extra about America’s future.

How dismal the auguries are. Trump stays the Republicans’ unofficial chief. Congresswoman Liz Cheney is among the many apostates to incur a main problem and censure by her state party. Marjorie Taylor Greene, her most populist new colleague, raised a scarcely credible $3.2m within the first quarter. (Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, a liberal star, managed one-fourth as a lot upon her personal debut in Congress.) What hope there was after January’s Capitol siege of an finish to the zeal and quackery is now quaint to recall.

I might cite different indicators of a hardening Trumpism however, by now, the incorrigibility of the Republicans is well-known. The purpose is to elucidate it. Too typically, the rightward drift of the get together is pinned on such fiddly variables as Fox News (primetime viewers: 2.5m) and the Trump “base”, as if a plucky sect had been doing all of the work.

That is to exonerate an voters that doesn’t punish extremism because it as soon as did. After 4 years during which he lived down to all however the direst expectations, Trump misplaced the presidency by a margin that was a way wanting a landslide. Twenty-seven of the 50 states, and never simply the plain ones, nonetheless have Republican governors. Now, not lengthy after a majority of Home Republicans contested Biden’s election win — that’s, defied the general public will — they will meet in cheap confidence of midterm glory. If these are the wages of extremism, they’re eminently inexpensive.

American voters used to throw the ebook at hotheads and even eccentrics. A wildness of thought and magnificence price Barry Goldwater a 16m-vote defeat within the 1964 election, when there have been fewer than 200m People. For the crime of a soggy and meandering liberalism, Walter Mondale misplaced each state however one 20 years later. Had the Republicans tasted something like as crushing a end in November, they might now be six months right into a strategy of reform, or no less than a constructive civil warfare. As it’s, there’s minimal incentive on their half to mirror, a lot much less change. In a post-landslide age, neither get together is ever additional than another heave from energy.

It’s soothing, little question, to imagine {that a} fervent cult, drunk on misinformation, is what threatens US democracy. It offers the issue manageable dimensions. It additionally avoids blaming the general public at massive. However no sect, nevertheless vehement, can prosper with out complacent multitudes. They don’t share the stridency of the few, as such, however nor do they thoughts it sufficient. The issue is within the many tens of tens of millions, not the low tens of millions.

Sure, the gerrymandering of Congress overstates Republican recognition. So does the electoral school and different anti-majoritarian quirks of a structure drawn up in one other world by landed gentry. Even adjusting for these, nevertheless, the GOP stands on a stunningly excessive ground of assist after Trump, after the Capitol raid, after every part. Not simply the Home but additionally the Senate is plausibly recoverable in brief order. In some unspecified time in the future, the blame for contemporary Republicanism should go from the get together to an voters that would treatment it without delay by levying harsher political prices.

Till then, the strictly tactical case for renouncing both Trump or his fabled-ism will stay weak throughout the get together. Average Republicans are left to petition their colleagues’ consciences and ideas as an alternative. It’s only essential to learn that sentence to despair of their probabilities.


Comply with Janan Ganesh with myFT and on Twitter